🧪 Dna Mixture Statistics
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Dna Mixture Statistics

77 items · 77 forensic · 33 with detail pages

This catalog brings together DNA frequency calculations, mixture analyses, results boards, expert reports, population databases, and scientific publications used in criminal and civil proceedings. Materials include the 1992 and 1996 National Research Council reports, successive reports and tables by Dr. Bruce Weir, and prosecution- and defense-prepared charts presenting disputed methods for calculating mixed-stain frequencies. Testimony and exhibits address samples from Bundy, the Bronco, socks, and gloves, while preserving disagreements over database foundations, contributor assumptions, likelihood ratios, the product rule, and the interpretation of reported frequencies.

Detailed entries (33)

1992 NRC report “DNA Technology in Forensic Science”
🧪 Forensic

The 1992 National Research Council report “DNA Technology in Forensic Science,” cited by both sides concerning mixed-stain statistics, the ceiling principle and product rule, PCR contamination, laboratory error rates, accreditation, and proficiency testing. Marked trial presentations included Defense 1296 and 1299 excerpts and Defense 1312, a slide containing report language; witnesses differed over the report's meaning, recommendations, and applicability.

Defense 1296Defense 1299Defense 1312
41 procs · 15 people
Dr. Weir's June 21, 1995 Expert Report on DNA Frequencies
🧪 Forensic

Dr. Bruce Weir's report dated June 21, 1995 comprised 48 pages plus a cover and addressed single-stain and mixture frequency calculations for Cellmark and California DOJ results. It was received without objection for purposes of the hearing as People's 408, also referenced as Exhibit 408, and portions were examined concerning mixture calculations, assumed validity of laboratory profiling, and quoted NRC language.

Exhibit 408People's 408
6 procs · 5 people
Letter from Approximately 25 Scientists on DNA Statistical Assumptions (Defendant's 1145 / Defense 1145)
🧪 Forensic

A five-page letter associated with approximately 25 scientists in statistics and population genetics concerning independence assumptions and the product-rule controversy in forensic DNA frequency calculations. Described as a rejected submission to Nature, it was marked Defendant's 1145 and Defense 1145; attempts to use it substantively during cross-examination were limited or blocked.

Defendant's 1145Defense 1145
3 procs · 3 people
Prosecution Mixture Frequency Ratios Chart (People's 410)
🧪 Forensic

A prosecution chart displaying frequency ratios for a mixed DNA stain, displayed on the ELMO projector during Dr. Shields's criminal trial testimony.

Exhibit 410People's 410
3 procs · 4 people
Bundy DNA Frequency Statistics Board (Defendant's/Defense 259)
🧪 Forensic

A board or chart displaying DNA typing results and population frequency estimates for Bundy walkway blood drop items 47 through 52. Used by the defense during Robin Cotton's cross-examination and referenced again during Dr. Gerdes's testimony.

Defendant's 259Defense 259
2 procs · 4 people
Civil Trial Weir Mixture Frequency Summary Table (2231)
🧪 Forensic

Dr. Bruce Weir's 'Summary of Mixture Frequencies' document, providing statistical frequency calculations for mixed DNA stains from items 31, 303, 304, and 305 in the civil trial. The most recent version, generated the morning before Weir's testimony, was marked by both plaintiff and defendant as Exhibit 2231.

Defendants' 2231Plaintiffs' 2231
2 procs · 3 people
People's 260 — Bronco DNA Results and Frequency Board
🧪 Forensic

People's 260, a board presenting PCR typing results for Bronco samples, including DQ-Alpha and D1S80 results for steering-wheel and console items. Covers and corrected number patches were used during testimony, and the board was later annotated with population-frequency estimates and contributor-frequency ranges.

People's 260
19 procs · 10 people
Rockingham DNA results and frequency board (People's 261)
🧪 Forensic

People's 261, the Rockingham DNA-results posterboard, displayed typing results for Rockingham samples and PCR reference results for OJ Simpson, Nicole Brown, and Ronald Goldman. Dr. Robin Cotton and Gary Sims annotated its frequency columns with PCR and RFLP estimates, including figures for Items 7 and 12.

People's 261
4 procs · 4 people
Defendant's 1201 — Cellmark DQ-Alpha Frequency Tables
🧪 Forensic

Cellmark DQ-Alpha genotype-frequency tables for Caucasian, African American, and Hispanic population databases, introduced as Defendant's 1201 and used as reference material and for NRC-method calculations during Dr. Bruce Weir's cross-examination.

Defendant's 1201
3 procs · 2 people
Defendant's 1209 — DQ-Alpha Genotype-Frequency Table
🧪 Forensic

Defendant's 1209, a table of DQ-Alpha genotype frequencies for Bronco-console stains 303, 304, and 305 and glove stain G10, marked for identification and discussed during Dr. Bruce Weir's examination.

Defendant's 1209
2 procs · 2 people
Dr. Speed's Letter to Bruce Weir, September 29, 1992 (People's 577)
🧪 Forensic

A letter from Dr. Terry Speed to Dr. Bruce Weir dated September 29, 1992, criticizing the assumptions of the NRC panel with 'sarcasm intended.' Used by the prosecution to impeach Speed's criminal trial testimony.

People's 577
2 procs · 2 people
People's 24 — Blood-Typing Results and Frequency Chart
🧪 Forensic

People's 24, a preliminary-hearing chart summarizing ABO, ESD, and PGM blood-typing results for items 17, 49, 59, and 60 and listing blood types and genetic-marker frequencies for O.J. Simpson, Nicole Brown Simpson, and Ron Goldman. It was used during Greg Matheson's testimony to discuss which individuals fell within the stated 43-percent population frequency for item 49.

People's 24
2 procs · 2 people
'Frequencies Most Favorable to Defense' Table (Defendants' 2233)
🧪 Forensic

A civil trial document titled 'Frequencies Most Favorable to Defense — Dr. Weir,' listing stain items with civil trial DNA frequency numbers calculated under assumptions most favorable to the defense. Used to cross-reference Weir's testimony.

Defendants' 2233
1 proc · 2 people
Bundy Foyer Blood (Item 12) DNA Frequency Statistics
🧪 Forensic

During civil closing argument, Robert Blasier challenged the frequency evidence for Bundy foyer blood designated Item 12, stating that Cotton had given a 1-in-1.2-billion figure from the African American database based on two individuals tested for all five probes.

Item 12
1 proc · 1 person
Defendant's 1212 — G10 D1S80 Frequency Table
🧪 Forensic

D1S80 frequency table for glove stain G10 addressing alleles 24 and 25 only, discussed during Dr. Bruce Weir's cross-examination.

Defendant's 1212
1 proc · 2 people
Defendant's 1213 — G10 Combined Frequency Table
🧪 Forensic

Combined DQ-Alpha and D1S80 frequency table for glove stain G10 showing an approximate population inclusion of one in ten.

Defendant's 1213
1 proc · 2 people
Defense 1199 — Weir Tables 25-A and 25-B
🧪 Forensic

Dr. Bruce Weir's tables 25-A and 25-B presenting mixture-frequency calculations for glove items G1 and G4, including 18 pairs accounting for the possible or absent 1.2 allele.

Defense 1199
1 proc · 2 people
Defense Mixture Frequency Methodology Chart (Defense Chart 410)
🧪 Forensic

A defense-prepared chart summing genotype frequencies for mixture contributors per the NRC report's recommended method, used to contest Dr. Weir's mixture frequency calculation approach during criminal trial proceedings.

Defense Chart 410
1 proc · 2 people
Dr. Weir's New Mixture Frequency Chart on Redirect (Defense 1216)
🧪 Forensic

A chart of new mixture frequency calculations presented by Dr. Weir during redirect examination in the criminal trial, marked for identification during recross-examination as Defense 1216.

Defense 1216
1 proc · 2 people
Earlier Version of Civil Trial Weir Frequency Table (Defendants' 2232)
🧪 Forensic

An earlier version of Dr. Weir's civil trial DNA mixture frequency table, generated earlier in the week of testimony, showing 1 in 200 billion rather than the 1 in 300 billion figure in the updated version. Introduced and compared side-by-side with Defendants' 2231.

Defendants' 2232
1 proc · 2 people
Evett et al. Article on Interpreting Mixed DNA Profiles (People's 411)
🧪 Forensic

Published scientific article titled 'A guide to interpreting single locus profiles of DNA mixtures in forensic cases' by Evett et al., addressing methodology for DNA mixture frequency calculation in forensic contexts. Admitted into evidence during Dr. Weir's criminal trial testimony.

People's 411
1 proc · 2 people
Exhibit 71 — Weir DNA Mixture Frequency Statistic
🧪 Forensic

A DNA mixture frequency statistic offered by defense witness Dr. Bruce Weir and discussed during the recross-examination of William Shields.

71
1 proc · 2 people
Neufeld Handdrawn Mixture Frequencies Chart (Defense 1208)
🧪 Forensic

A mixture frequencies chart drawn by defense attorney Peter Neufeld during cross-examination of Dr. Weir, containing three columns including one labeled 'NRC' with frequencies as low as 1 in 2 or 1 in 4. Challenged by Weir as not correctly calculating the frequency of the full evidentiary profile.

Defense 1208
1 proc · 2 people
November DNA Frequency Board (People's 272-B)
🧪 Forensic

The November frequency board (People's 272-B), a prosecution exhibit displaying DNA frequency data that Barry Scheck displayed during a criminal trial sidebar. Referenced during Dr. Weir's testimony in criminal proceedings.

People's 272-B
1 proc · 2 people
People's 255 — Population Data Diagram
🧪 Forensic

Hand-drawn “Population Data” diagram created by Dr. Robin Cotton during testimony, illustrating a sample of five RFLP-band lanes and frequency calculations.

People's 255
1 proc · 2 people
Prosecution Mixture Frequency Chart (Prosecution Chart 409)
🧪 Forensic

A prosecution-prepared chart showing the DNA mixture frequency for the Bronco stain calculated as the product of two contributor genotype frequencies, yielding approximately 0.15%. Displayed during Dr. Weir's criminal trial testimony and contrasted with the defense chart.

Prosecution Chart 409
1 proc · 2 people
Rockingham Glove DNA Analysis Results Summary
🧪 Forensic

Defendants' 2235, titled “Results of DNA Analysis - Rockingham glove,” summarizing criminal-trial DNA results for glove stains and used during Dr. Bruce Weir's testimony to compare criminal- and civil-trial numbers.

Defendants' 2235
1 proc · 2 people
Steering Wheel Mixture Genotype Frequency Table (Defendant's 1202)
🧪 Forensic

An extracted table of genotype frequencies for individuals who could have contributed to the steering-wheel mixture. It was introduced and discussed during Dr. Weir's cross-examination.

Defendant's 1202
1 proc · 2 people
Steering Wheel Mixture Population Frequency Summary Slide (Defendant's 1204)
🧪 Forensic

A slide summing, by ethnic database, the population frequencies of potential contributors to the steering-wheel mixture. It was introduced and discussed during Dr. Weir's cross-examination.

Defendant's 1204
1 proc · 2 people
Dr. Edward Blake's Worldwide DQ-Alpha Frequency Database
🧪 Forensic

Dr. Edward Blake's worldwide DQ-Alpha population-frequency compilation, identified during Gary Sims's testimony as a 1994 source for African American, Caucasian, and Hispanic frequency data. It was described as unpublished but disseminated, and Peter Neufeld stated that both DOJ and Cellmark had provided it in discovery.

3 procs · 2 people
Dr. Weir's Mixture RFLP Statistical Report
🧪 Forensic

Dr. Weir's report on statistical calculations for mixture RFLP results, referenced by Barry Scheck to argue complexity and prejudice and characterized by him as using a novel, unpublished method.

3 procs · 3 people
Second NRC Report (1996) on Forensic DNA Statistics
🧪 Forensic

The National Research Council's second report on forensic DNA evidence (1996), which abandoned the ceiling principle recommended in the 1992 report and endorsed the product rule for calculating DNA profile frequencies. Referenced in civil trial testimony by Gary Sims.

2 procs · 3 people
Socks Five-Probe RFLP Match-Frequency Result
🧪 Forensic

Five-probe RFLP match-frequency result for the blood stain on the socks, reported as matching Nicole Brown with frequencies ranging from 1 in 6.8 billion for Hispanics to 1 in 530 billion for African Americans. During cross-examination, the defense questioned whether the blood could have been placed on the socks after collection, and Dr. Robin Cotton confirmed that no test could date the blood.

2 procs · 3 people

Additional references (44)

Brief references from transcripts that don't warrant an individual page. Each has a single source or is mentioned only in passing.

  • 1992 Cellmark DNA Database — The 1992 Cellmark DNA database, discussed as the only Cellmark database formally in evidence through Robin Cotton's testimony.
  • 1994 Cellmark DNA Database — The 1994 Cellmark DNA database. The defense challenged its foundation, while Clarke argued that Weir's close work with Cellmark permitted him to rely on it.
  • 1994 Cellmark RFLP Database — A 1994 Cellmark RFLP database discussed during redirect examination of Dr. Bruce Weir.
  • Article on Mixture Frequency Calculations in 'Advances in Forensic Haemogenetics' — An article from 'Advances in Forensic Haemogenetics' discussing mixture frequency calculations. It was turned over at deposition and referenced during civil-trial cross-examination of Dr. Bruce Weir.
  • Bronco Center-Console DNA Frequency Chart Entry — Chart entry for a Bronco center-console DNA sample reported as not excluding Simpson, with frequencies ranging from 1 in 520 to 1 in 1,400 across ethnic databases.
  • Bronco Four-Contributor Mixture Calculations — Four-contributor mixture-frequency calculations for the Bronco. The defense sought the underlying data and was described as receiving only a summary range.
  • Bronco Three-Person DNA Mixture Results — Ford Bronco DNA samples discussed during Dr. John Gerdes’s cross-examination as consistent with a mixture of Simpson, Goldman, and Brown.
  • Cellmark and DOJ Written Reports with Frequency Estimates — Written reports from Cellmark Diagnostics and the California Department of Justice providing DNA frequency estimates for the case, received and reviewed by Dr. Weir as part of his criminal trial expert analysis.
  • Cellmark DNA Reports — Confidence Limits — Cellmark DNA reports from the case discussed during Dr. Bruce Weir's cross-examination regarding whether they included confidence limits; Dr. Weir was uncertain whether they did.
  • Cellmark PCR Database — Cellmark PCR database discussed during the redirect examination of Dr. Bruce Weir.
  • Cellmark Report Dated December 5 — Cellmark report cited by Thompson as stating that an additional contributor to stain 78 beyond Nicole could not be identified and that the result concerning Goldman was inconclusive.
  • Department of Justice DNA Statistical Reports — The California Department of Justice's DNA statistical reports for this case, discussed during Dr. Weir's criminal trial cross-examination. Weir confirmed the DOJ does not report confidence limits in its statistical reporting.
  • DNA Marker Systems and Statistics Results Board — Existing DNA-results board showing all marker systems and statistics, cited during an expert-qualification motion as making a proposed concordance board redundant.
  • DNA Match Statistics (1 in 57 Billion to 1 in 150 Billion) — DNA match statistics ranging from 1 in 57 billion to 1 in 150 billion, discussed during Gary Sims's civil-trial redirect examination.
  • Dr. Bruce Weir Memo on Mixed-Sample Frequency Calculations — A memo by Dr. Bruce Weir containing mixed-sample frequency calculations. It was discussed during a May 12, 1995 motion hearing and had not yet been presented to the jury.
  • Dr. Weir’s February 1995 DNA Report — A February 1995 report by Dr. Bruce Weir provided to the defense in discovery and described as containing references to the 1994 Cellmark database for approximately four months.
  • Dr. Weir’s June 20 DNA Mixture Report — Dr. Bruce Weir’s June 20 report using likelihood ratios for DNA mixtures.
  • Dr. Weir’s May 11 DNA Mixture Report — Dr. Bruce Weir’s May 11 report presenting likelihood ratios for DNA mixtures, cited by the defense as evidence of a shifting prosecution methodology.
  • Dr. Weir’s May 31 DNA Mixture Draft — Dr. Bruce Weir’s May 31 draft report using likelihood ratios for DNA mixtures.
  • Dr. Weir’s Preliminary DNA Mixture Statistics Report — A preliminary report by Dr. Bruce Weir concerning likelihood-ratio statistics for DNA mixtures, challenged during a motion hearing as lacking supporting data, calculations, and article citations.
  • Dr. Weir's Revised Frequency Report During the Criminal Trial — A revised frequency report by Dr. Bruce Weir was partially received on the morning of the June 22, 1995 hearing. The defense contended that it repackaged likelihood ratios as frequencies.
  • FBI D1S80 Population-Frequency Database — FBI database identified during Gary Sims's testimony as a source of African American and Caucasian D1S80 frequency data.
  • FBI DQ-Alpha Database — FBI DQ-Alpha database challenged by the defense during the motion concerning Dr. Bruce Weir's testimony; Peter Neufeld argued that only Dr. Blake's worldwide database had been provided in discovery for DQ-Alpha.
  • FBI Population Frequency Databases (Used by California DOJ) — FBI population frequency databases used by the California Department of Justice for RFLP frequency calculations in this case. Discussed during Dr. Weir's criminal trial testimony; Weir confirmed DOJ relied entirely on FBI databases for its RFLP calculations.
  • FBI RFLP and PCR Databases — FBI RFLP and PCR databases discussed during the redirect examination of Dr. Bruce Weir.
  • FBI World Population Study (HAE 3 Restriction Enzyme Data) — An FBI world population study containing HAE 3 restriction-enzyme population data used to calculate DNA profile frequencies. Harmon questioned Gary Sims about his familiarity with it, and Scheck objected to the scope.
  • Glove and Bronco DNA Results Boards — Glove and Bronco results boards previously shown to the jury and referenced as context for mixture stains, including nearly all glove results and several Bronco stains.
  • Item 78 DNA Mixture Sample — A DNA mixture sample identified as Item 78 and discussed in a dispute over statistical reporting.
  • LAPD Lab PGM Sub-Type General Population Frequency Chart (Preliminary Hearing) — An LAPD laboratory frequency chart for PGM sub-type providing general population data not broken down by race, discussed during criminalist Greg Matheson's testimony at the preliminary hearing.
  • List of NRC Committee Members — A list of NRC committee members reviewed by Dr. Speed on the stand during cross-examination.
  • Matheson Blood Type Frequency Calculation (1 in 200) (Preliminary Hearing) — Preliminary hearing testimony by Greg Matheson presenting a frequency calculation: Type A (33.7%) × PGM sub-type 2+2− (1.6%) × Esterase D type 1 (79.6%) = 0.43%, rounded to approximately 1 in 200.
  • Paper Presented at the 'Promaga Conference' (~October 1995) — A paper presented at approximately the October 1995 'Promaga Conference' concerning appropriate frequency-calculation methods. It was turned over at deposition and referenced during civil-trial cross-examination of Dr. Bruce Weir.
  • Prosecution DNA Contributor Board for Steering-Wheel Item 29 — Prosecution visual chart showing contributors described as not excluded from the mixed bloodstain on Bronco steering-wheel item 29; Neufeld challenged the board and sought addition of a third-person card.
  • Raw Statistical Data Provided to William Shields — Raw statistical data concerning the statistical aspects of the case provided to William Shields; he had not reviewed the autoradiographs or typing strips.
  • Rockingham, Bundy, and Glove DNA Frequency Board Group — Group of prosecution DNA evidence boards for Rockingham, Bundy, and glove profiling; Dr. Terence Speed testified that their frequency columns addressed only the probability of a coincidental match.
  • Sample 50 Slot-Blot DNA Quantity Calculation — Sample 50 slot-blot estimate of 1.94 nanograms, with Scheck projecting approximately 12.1 nanograms of total DNA on an assumed 16 percent extraction.
  • Sample 52 Slot-Blot DNA Quantity Calculation — Sample 52 slot-blot measurement of 3.64 nanograms, with Scheck attempting to project approximately 31.6 nanograms of total DNA on an assumed 11.5 percent extraction.
  • Scheck Handwritten DQ-Alpha Combination Chart for Item 303 — Scheck's handwritten chart presenting 37 possible DQ-Alpha combinations for Bronco console stain item 303 based only on the DQ-Alpha marker; Harmon challenged its omission of D1S80 data and elicited testimony that two of the 37 combinations matched the victims.
  • Simpson Five-Locus Genetic Profile and Rarity Calculation — Simpson's genetic profile across five loci, its calculated rarity frequency, and a database count of two people typed like him, discussed in questioning and confirmed by Dr. Robin Cotton.
  • Table 30 Three-Contributor Calculations (Weir Report) — Table 30, containing three-contributor calculations, was discussed as the model for the format of four-contributor data sought by the defense.
  • Two-Donor DNA Frequency Report with Potential Pair Counts — A DNA frequency report by Dr. Weir addressing two-donor mixture scenarios, including potential pair counts. Referenced by Peter Neufeld during criminal trial proceedings to illustrate that Weir had performed this analytical step for two donors but not for three or four donors.
  • Weir Article 'DNA Statistics in the Simpson Matter,' Nature Genetics (1995) — Dr. Bruce Weir's article 'DNA Statistics in the Simpson Matter,' published in Nature Genetics, volume 11, in December 1995. It was used during civil-trial cross-examination to challenge his stated methodology and question him about likelihood ratios.
  • Weir Prior Testimony on DNA Frequencies — Criminal-trial transcript pages 33774–33776 containing Dr. Bruce Weir’s prior testimony on DNA frequencies, used to confront him with prior inconsistent numbers.
  • Weir Revised DNA Mixture Frequency Calculations — Revised DNA mixture frequency calculations prepared by Dr. Bruce Weir for Rockingham-glove stains G1 and G2 and combined Bronco stains 303, 304, and 305. The defense challenged the document on the ground that it was received on the morning of testimony without prior discovery.
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