First of all, your Honor, if I may, I just want an acknowledgment from the jury that they can at least see it from where they are.
Now, Dr. Cotton, when we left off, you said that, for instance, if the stains at Bundy came from older blood drops, that would still be consistent with the results that you got and the numbers that you generated, correct?
And you also said I believe that if in fact while the Bundy swatches were in the evidence processing room and they were cross-contaminated--they were degraded and cross-contaminated with the Rockingham swatches, that also would give you the same result that you have, correct?
And also, you--well, we didn't get to this before, but we've now done this during the break. If in fact on the morning--on--during the day of the 14th, when the Bundy swatches were in the same evidence processing room with Mr. Simpson's reference sample, fresh reference sample at a time when the reference samples of Mr. Goldman and Miss Nicole Brown Simpson were not there and they came in contact with one another, that too could produce the same results that you have on through DNA typing at Cellmark, correct?
With the same caveat, assuming there's enough contamination, the answer is yes.
KEY QUOTEAll right. And again, you also said that obviously if there's a coincidental match, in other words, if somebody else has the same profile as Mr. Simpson, that too would be able to generate the results that you got in the laboratory, correct?
And finally, if there was some other type of contamination at another time, another place, either unintentional or deliberate, that too could produce the same results that you have on your DNA testing, correct?
Okay. Well, assuming that the type of contamination was the same type as described in item 2 here and item 3, but it occurred at a different time and different place and perhaps not so benign, somewhat malevolent--excuse me--nonetheless, would it too generate the same result that you got from the DNA profiling in this case?
Okay. Now, you said that you don't know the probability of it being old drops, correct?
All right. Assuming that they were old drops, you have no idea what the probability of that occurring is, do you?
Would it be fair to say for all of these explanations, the only one that you can give a frequency estimate on is that of a coincidental match?
Now, Dr. Cotton, as an expert, you are often called upon to interpret data; is that right?
And sometimes, there may be more than one explanation for a certain piece of data; isn't that right?
Well, no. Just in terms of data as a scien--let me give you an example, a specific example. I believe you said on direct examination--
Now, putting up on the elmo People's exhibit 257-d, I believe you said on direct examination that there may be more than one explanation, for instance, why some bands are faint and others are darker?
However, you said the most common explanation is that there is less--it's because there's less DNA in that lane; is that correct?
And then I think you said also that there are other secondary explanations, but they are not as common; is that correct?
There are other secondary explanations that could contribute to a band either being darker or lighter than some other band.
Now, likewise, Dr. Cotton, in the various explanations that appear on Defendant's exhibit--which is right next to you at this point--1144, if any of those explanations occur with greater frequency than the 1 in 180 million, would those other explanations deserve greater attention by you?
I can remove the exhibit. Since they'll be more drawing, I'm just going to turn the page.
I believe you said on direct examination that if you were to open up a cell, a human cell that contained chromosomes and you took out all the DNA out of that single cell, there would be approximately three billion base pairs; is that correct?
Okay. And I believe you also said that approximately 99 percent of all of our DNA is identical; is that correct?
That's a rough estimation. In fact, it's probably somewhat greater than 99 percent.
And when you say that--let's say for argument sake, 99 percent is the same in all of us. You mean that the DNA that defines us as a species, as human beings as opposed to a lobster, for instance, is all the same?
And so the DNA that decides that we have hands and not claws is going to be the same in all of us who are sitting in this room?
All right. But it's that remaining one percent more or less where there is some variation within the human population, right?
And that one percent, according to your estimate, would be approximately 60 million base pairs; is that right?
And your tests that you do at Cellmark don't compare the 60 million base pairs showing variation within the human population, do they?
When Cellmark does a forensic test, it examines how many different markers within the chromosomes?
We have at our lab the capability of looking at five. Some labs have the capability of looking at more, but that's what we're currently doing.
Six. Well, we now have the capability of looking at nine. But for this case, we looked at six, and so six would be the relevant answer.
And so would it be fair to say that there are millions and millions of base pairs showing variation that your tests don't examine?
Now, when you say that a particular marker of DNA--that everyone is different for some of these markers, don't you mean that for a particular genetic marker, there is some degree of variation within the population?
Well, I didn't say that for any marker, everyone is different. But--and so your second statement is the accurate statement.
Okay. And would you also agree--I think you said it on direct--that for some of these markers, there's very little variation in fact in the population, whereas, for some of the RFLP markers, there is considerably more?
For instance, for some of the individual markers that make up your poly-marker tests, one of them is called LDLR; is that right?
All right. So would you agree that, for instance, there's more diversity in eye color within the population than there is for the LDLR mark that you use for forensic testing?
Well, would you agree also that for--that there's not a single RFLP that you actually utilize that would be unique to any one person? I guess that's redundant. Would be that one person would have and that no one else would have? Is that a fair statement, that's a single RFLP?
I don't think that there's--I don't think we actually know the answer to that question.
Well, for any of the RFLPs that were utilized in this case for which you profiled Mr. Simpson, is there any particular band that you have found that is totally unique in the human population?
As the bands are measured in this test, there are probably not ones that are unique in the population.
Okay. And I believe you also said that the first thing you do when conducting a DNA test and looking at the autorad is, you make a visual comparison; is that right?
--the first thing we do when you have the film off is to make a visual assessment of what's on that film.
And correct me if I'm mistaken, Dr. Cotton, because I want to get this right, but if they are visually indistinguishable, do you then declare them to be a match?
Well, when--at that point, we're not declaring them to be anything because at that point, then you're going to go ahead and do the computer imagining system assessment of band size and then you would make an assessment as whether you had a match or not. So--
So you're not writing anything down. You're not saying I have this opinion. You're just going forward.
All right. So--and you go forward to the computer because would you agree that it's necessary to have some objective and quantitative procedure for measuring the size of these bands?
The computer gives you a quantitative procedure and it--and it assists you in having an objective procedure, but it doesn't completely provide an objective procedure because the machine isn't smart enough to make the judgments that the human eye can make.
So it's a combination then of the person with the computer that gives you an objective and quantitative procedure for measuring the size of the bands?
Now, you mentioned that given the limitations of the system, the imprecision of the system, you said that no band would be unique in your system; is that correct?
I mean we don't really know. I'm just saying, based on what we do know and our experience, I wouldn't want to say that there was one that was unique. So--
Well, you mentioned, when you're talking about imprecision, that if bands don't necessarily line up exactly, in other words, one band could have more base pairs than another band, under your system and given its imprecision, you would still declare a match; is that correct?
All right. Let me ask you, just to illustrate this point, assume this is the autorad and you have a band in lane 1, all right? And that band is--let's call it 10,000 base pairs. In other words, your computer has looked at that band and measured it and determined that it is a 10,000 base pair band.
All right? Okay. Now, given your system's imprecision, how much bigger could a band be or smaller could a band be than 10,000 base pairs and you still declare it a match under your procedure?
If you want the precise answer to that question, I need to look in our standard operating procedure. But if you'll accept something that's reasonably close--
--the figure would be about four percent. There's a whole set of figures. So I'm trying to remember what the figure is in that size range, but four percent is going to be close to whatever the actual figure is.
So if a band in lane 2 was let's say a little bit larger, 10,400 base pairs, under your system's imprecision, you would still declare a match between these two bands even though one has 400 more base pairs to it than the other; is that correct?
Okay. Well, is that a correct approximation? If it's not, please give me another one.
And, likewise, if the band was smaller than 10,000 and was only let's say 9,600 base pairs, under your system's imprecision, you would still declare a match between the 9,600 base pair band and the 10,000 base pair band; is that correct?
Now, would you agree, Dr. Cotton, that within that range that I gave you there, 9,600 to 10,400 base pairs, there could be in fact, in reality that is, different and distinct alleles?
Given the imprecision of your system, Dr. Cotton, that you've just described, if an item of evidence and a suspect have a band, a particular band which in fact differ by, in our example here, let's say 400 base pairs, then you would declare the suspect and the item to be a match, is that right, just for that band?
And even if in fact the suspect's band represented a different allele than the evidentiary allele, you would still make that declaration of a match given your system's imprecision for that single band; is that correct?
Well, let me be clear here. In our laboratory, we don't ever report a match on--based on a single band.
But if you're asking me, do you have this size band and this size band and they're within the correct range, are they going to be called a match, the answer is yes.
Just so I can understand the system, and in fact in this particular case, when you actually did computer sizings--you did computer sizings of the bands in this case, didn't you?
And when you compared, for instance, a band in lane 52 and then you sized a band in Mr. Simpson's reference lane, the number of base pairs that your computer came up with was not the same number for both those lanes; isn't that correct?
Now, I take it, Dr. Cotton, that to arrive at a frequency of 1 in 170 million people, you did not test the blood of 170 million people?
We tested, as I said before, for the database, the size ranges from about 150 to about 325. If you add all the people in the database up, all three racial groups, comes to around 5- to 600.
And it's taking a number--well, let me ask you. You gave a number though, for instance, for Mr.--for the profile, Mr. Simpson's profile, you said you expect to see it in 1 out of 170 million people in the African-American population; is that right?
Okay. And how large is your African-American database from which you generated that number?
The--what I'll do is read you the sizes for the number of people that are in each probe one by one because they're not all the same.
Well, let me ask you this then. You mean, there's not--is there a single group of people who your laboratory has identified as--as African Americans on whom you ran all five of the probes that were utilized in this case?
No. There's a lot of overlap between who's, for example, been tested with MS1 and MS31 and so on. But the samples do not have--most of the samples do not have all five probes across each sample.
All right. Can you tell us how many of the samples you did run all five probes on in the African-American population?
Not without going back and doing a lot of figuring from the database. I don't know that off the top of my head.
All right. What I would simply ask is that between tonight perhaps when we break and tomorrow, maybe you can make some phone calls and there's someone back at Cellmark that can help you learn that so I can ask you tomorrow.
I'll try to get that information. I don't know--I don't know--I haven't been at Cellmark for a while. I don't know which of my lab staff are available to help me find things in the lab.
Well, putting that aside and starting out with your premise that you can't really say how many people were subjected to all five probes, why don't you give me the range then for within the--your African-American database?
There are 240 people for MS1, 238 for MS31, 223 for MS43, 200 for G3 and a 146 for YNH24.
KEY QUOTESo would you agree that at a maximum, the greatest number of African Americans in your African-American database who have been subjected to all five probes would be that 140 something number you gave for YNH24?
Okay. And so based on your analysis of 146 people of African-American ancestry, you arrived at a combined frequency in this case of 1 in 170 million people; is that correct?
No, it's not because some of the probes had quite a large number, more than 146. And since you're looking at the frequency of bands for each individual probe, the frequencies are not--the fact that you don't have each person across all five probes doesn't affect your ability to look at a frequency for a specific probe.
Fine, Dr. Cotton. So it's 200--what's the largest number--what's the largest number in the database for any of those five probes?
So what you did was, you looked at the DNA profiles of 240 people, and from that, you extrapolated a number for the frequency of Mr. Simpson's DNA profile of 1 in 170 million people; is that correct?
And would you agree that there has been some controversy about the appropriateness of using databases that size for extrapolating these kinds of large numbers?
I don't think that the controversies have arisen around the size of the database and there is literature to support databases of this size for this purpose.
Now, to compile this African-American database, did you seek subjects--did you seek subjects from different countries in Africa?
Did you seek subjects from different African-American communities scattered throughout the United States?
In fact, your entire database--your entire African-American database comes from the red cross--I'm sorry comes from the red cross in Detroit, Michigan; isn't that right?
And would you agree that to go from a database of 250 African Americans in Detroit to a number of 1 in 170 million to one in 1.2 billion, you had to make certain assumptions about the independence of these different genetic characteristics?
There are a whole series of assumptions built into that calculation, and one of them is independence, but there are also tests for independence in these databases which have been done and they have been shown based on these tests that the markers are independent.
Now, Dr. Cotton, would you agree, however, that they are based on a number of assumptions, one of which you said is that these different genetic markers are inherited independently of one another?
Yes. But what I'm saying is that there is data to back up that assumption and, therefore, it is not really an assumption at this point.
Would you agree, Dr. Cotton, that there is--or I'm sorry--would you agree, Dr. Cotton, that there has been substantial controversy in the scientific community about that various assumption that you've just described?
Referring specifically to the assumption of independence, would you agree that with respect to that assumption and whether or not there is adequate data to demonstrate that it's an appropriate assumption, that that itself has been the subject of significant controversy in the scientific community?
All right. Well, Dr. Cotton, had there been controversy in the past about that very point?
In fact, Dr. Cotton, that book that you had in your purse, what--or your briefcase, could--what--could you take it out again, please, the NRC report?
There have been a few people who are experts in population genetics who have not agreed with the way statistical calculations are made for forensic casework as given in the RFLP example. There are also a large number of people who agree that the statistical calculations are appropriate. So depending on who you phoned up, you might find an opinion one way or the other.
Well, you said there are a few people, Dr. Cotton, who take that position. Isn't it a fact, Dr. Cotton, that as recently as November of 1994, more than two dozen --
No. You're calling--the question and answer calls for a hearsay conclusion as to the content of something, counsel. That's the problem. Sustained.
When you said, Dr. Cotton, a moment ago that there's a few scientists who are critical of that assumption, how many did you mean by a few?
Based on the number of published articles that state an opinion one way or another, I would say there might be--this is sort of a little hard to answer, but maybe something around five or six people who have been vocal in their opposition to these calculations.
And there's an objection. When the objection is made, you need to allow me to rule on it. Did you finish your answer, doctor?
I've heard of him. I haven't written--I mean, haven't read anything that he's writ--I'm not aware that he's written anything on this topic.
Fine. Are you aware--are you aware of any testimony that he's given, any cases without saying what it is?
Yes. I've read one of his papers. When I say yes, I don't know these people personally, but I may have either heard of them through court issues or read something that they wrote.
By the way, I didn't say Dr. Before each name, but just so the record is clear, each one of these is a doctor.
Do you know if he is a Professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology?
Is Dr. William shields a Professor of Population Genetics and Genetics at the State University of New York at Syracuse?
Is Dr. Charles Taylor a Professor of the Department of Biology of the University of California in Los Angeles?
And she is the Chairman of the Department of Statistics at the University of Washington in Seattle?
Would it refresh your recollection if you knew that he was a Professor in the Department of Biology at Stanford University in California?
Dr. Cotton, at least as to the people whose names you recognized, do you agree that they have articulated that there was--
Not in my lifetime.
There are 240 people for MS1, 238 for MS31, 223 for MS43, 200 for G3 and a 146 for YNH24.
Yes, it does. [The entire African-American database comes from the Red Cross in Detroit, Michigan.]
With the same caveat, assuming there's enough contamination, the answer is yes.
Some lobsters don't have claws.