📄 Cross-examination of Dr. Robin Cotton (part 4) — Thursday, May 11, 1995
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▲ Day 72 of 167

Cross-examination of Dr. Robin Cotton (part 4)

Witness: Dr. Robin Cotton
Examiner: Peter Neufeld
Called by: Prosecution • Date: Thursday, May 11, 1995 • Utterances: 412
Peter Neufeld cross-examines Cellmark's Dr. Robin Cotton on the reliability of the DNA frequency statistics linking Simpson to the Bundy crime scene. He methodically extracts admissions that contamination, coincidental matches, or deliberate planting could all produce the same DNA results, then pivots to challenge the database underlying the '1 in 170 million' figure — revealing it rests on as few as 146-240 African Americans, all from a single Red Cross donation pool in Detroit. Neufeld then attempts to establish widespread scientific controversy about the statistical assumptions, but Judge Ito sustains repeated hearsay objections blocking reference to the NRC report and a letter signed by 25 scientists.
1 MR. NEUFELD:

Thank you.

2 MR. NEUFELD:

Now, Dr. Cotton, please excuse my handwriting--printing.

3 MR. NEUFELD:

First of all, your Honor, if I may, I just want an acknowledgment from the jury that they can at least see it from where they are.

4 THE COURT:

1492?

5 JUROR NO. 1492:

I can see most of it except the "contamination" part.

6 (Laughter.)
7 JUROR NO. 1492:

I mean the line part.

8 THE COURT:

All right. Proceed.

9 MR. NEUFELD:

Now, Dr. Cotton, when we left off, you said that, for instance, if the stains at Bundy came from older blood drops, that would still be consistent with the results that you got and the numbers that you generated, correct?

10 DR. COTTON:

That's right.

11 MR. NEUFELD:

And you also said I believe that if in fact while the Bundy swatches were in the evidence processing room and they were cross-contaminated--they were degraded and cross-contaminated with the Rockingham swatches, that also would give you the same result that you have, correct?

12 DR. COTTON:

If you had enough contamination, yes.

13 MR. NEUFELD:

Even if the Bundy drops initially came from someone other than Mr. Simpson?

14 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

15 MR. NEUFELD:

And also, you--well, we didn't get to this before, but we've now done this during the break. If in fact on the morning--on--during the day of the 14th, when the Bundy swatches were in the same evidence processing room with Mr. Simpson's reference sample, fresh reference sample at a time when the reference samples of Mr. Goldman and Miss Nicole Brown Simpson were not there and they came in contact with one another, that too could produce the same results that you have on through DNA typing at Cellmark, correct?

16 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

17 MR. CLARKE:

Excuse me. Objection. Assumes facts not in evidence.

18 THE COURT:

Noted. Overruled.

19 MR. NEUFELD:

I'm sorry. I didn't hear your answer.

20 DR. COTTON:

With the same caveat, assuming there's enough contamination, the answer is yes.

KEY QUOTE
21 MR. NEUFELD:

All right. And again, you also said that obviously if there's a coincidental match, in other words, if somebody else has the same profile as Mr. Simpson, that too would be able to generate the results that you got in the laboratory, correct?

22 DR. COTTON:

Of course.

23 MR. NEUFELD:

And finally, if there was some other type of contamination at another time, another place, either unintentional or deliberate, that too could produce the same results that you have on your DNA testing, correct?

24 DR. COTTON:

Depending on what the contamination was from, it may or may not.

25 MR. NEUFELD:

Okay. Well, assuming that the type of contamination was the same type as described in item 2 here and item 3, but it occurred at a different time and different place and perhaps not so benign, somewhat malevolent--excuse me--nonetheless, would it too generate the same result that you got from the DNA profiling in this case?

26 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

27 MR. NEUFELD:

Okay. Now, you said that you don't know the probability of it being old drops, correct?

28 MR. CLARKE:

Well, objection. Assumes facts not in evidence.

29 THE COURT:

Sustained. Rephrase the question.

30 MR. NEUFELD:

All right. Assuming that they were old drops, you have no idea what the probability of that occurring is, do you?

31 MR. CLARKE:

Same objection.

32 THE COURT:

She's already been asked and answered that question.

33 MR. NEUFELD:

Would it be fair to say for all of these explanations, the only one that you can give a frequency estimate on is that of a coincidental match?

34 DR. COTTON:

Of course.

35 MR. NEUFELD:

Okay. Now--I'm going to return--

36 MR. NEUFELD:

And I believe next in order would be 1144; is that correct?

37 THE COURT:

1144.

38 (Deft's 1144 for id = chart)
39 MR. NEUFELD:

Thank you.

40 MR. NEUFELD:

Now, Dr. Cotton, as an expert, you are often called upon to interpret data; is that right?

41 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

42 MR. CLARKE:

I'm sorry, your Honor. Sorry to interrupt. Are we finished with the exhibit?

43 MR. NEUFELD:

No. I'm going to come right back to the exhibit with these next questions.

44 THE COURT:

All right.

45 MR. NEUFELD:

And sometimes, there may be more than one explanation for a certain piece of data; isn't that right?

46 DR. COTTON:

You mean in terms of the data that we're looking at for any specific sample set?

47 MR. NEUFELD:

Well, no. Just in terms of data as a scien--let me give you an example, a specific example. I believe you said on direct examination--

48 MR. NEUFELD:

Can you put this up?

49 MR. NEUFELD:

Now, putting up on the elmo People's exhibit 257-d, I believe you said on direct examination that there may be more than one explanation, for instance, why some bands are faint and others are darker?

50 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

51 MR. NEUFELD:

However, you said the most common explanation is that there is less--it's because there's less DNA in that lane; is that correct?

52 DR. COTTON:

That's right.

53 MR. NEUFELD:

And then I think you said also that there are other secondary explanations, but they are not as common; is that correct?

54 DR. COTTON:

There are other secondary explanations that could contribute to a band either being darker or lighter than some other band.

55 MR. NEUFELD:

But the most common explanation is because there's less DNA in the lane?

56 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

57 MR. NEUFELD:

Now, likewise, Dr. Cotton, in the various explanations that appear on Defendant's exhibit--which is right next to you at this point--1144, if any of those explanations occur with greater frequency than the 1 in 180 million, would those other explanations deserve greater attention by you?

58 MR. CLARKE:

Objection. Argumentative.

59 THE COURT:

Sustained.

60 MR. NEUFELD:

I can remove the exhibit. Since they'll be more drawing, I'm just going to turn the page.

61 MR. NEUFELD:

I believe you said on direct examination that if you were to open up a cell, a human cell that contained chromosomes and you took out all the DNA out of that single cell, there would be approximately three billion base pairs; is that correct?

62 DR. COTTON:

No. I said six.

63 MR. NEUFELD:

Is that six billion base pairs or six billion bases?

64 DR. COTTON:

Six billion base pairs.

65 MR. NEUFELD:

Okay. And I believe you also said that approximately 99 percent of all of our DNA is identical; is that correct?

66 DR. COTTON:

That's a rough estimation. In fact, it's probably somewhat greater than 99 percent.

67 MR. NEUFELD:

And when you say that--let's say for argument sake, 99 percent is the same in all of us. You mean that the DNA that defines us as a species, as human beings as opposed to a lobster, for instance, is all the same?

68 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

69 MR. NEUFELD:

And so the DNA that decides that we have hands and not claws is going to be the same in all of us who are sitting in this room?

70 DR. COTTON:

We hope so.

71 THE COURT:

Some lobsters don't have claws.

KEY QUOTE
72 MR. NEUFELD:

It's an eastern thing, your Honor. Now, you have Maine.

73 THE COURT:

Well, I just said some lobsters.

74 MR. NEUFELD:

All right. But it's that remaining one percent more or less where there is some variation within the human population, right?

75 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

76 MR. NEUFELD:

And that one percent, according to your estimate, would be approximately 60 million base pairs; is that right?

77 DR. COTTON:

I think that's right, yes.

78 MR. NEUFELD:

And your tests that you do at Cellmark don't compare the 60 million base pairs showing variation within the human population, do they?

79 DR. COTTON:

Of course not.

80 MR. NEUFELD:

When Cellmark does a forensic test, it examines how many different markers within the chromosomes?

81 MR. CLARKE:

Objection. Vague.

82 THE COURT:

Overruled.

83 MR. NEUFELD:

When one does an RFLP test.

84 DR. COTTON:

We have at our lab the capability of looking at five. Some labs have the capability of looking at more, but that's what we're currently doing.

85 MR. NEUFELD:

And for your PCR markers, you look at how many?

86 DR. COTTON:

Six. Well, we now have the capability of looking at nine. But for this case, we looked at six, and so six would be the relevant answer.

87 MR. NEUFELD:

And so would it be fair to say that there are millions and millions of base pairs showing variation that your tests don't examine?

88 DR. COTTON:

Of course.

89 MR. NEUFELD:

Now, when you say that a particular marker of DNA--that everyone is different for some of these markers, don't you mean that for a particular genetic marker, there is some degree of variation within the population?

90 DR. COTTON:

Well, I didn't say that for any marker, everyone is different. But--and so your second statement is the accurate statement.

91 MR. NEUFELD:

Okay. And would you also agree--I think you said it on direct--that for some of these markers, there's very little variation in fact in the population, whereas, for some of the RFLP markers, there is considerably more?

92 DR. COTTON:

That's right.

93 MR. NEUFELD:

For instance, for some of the individual markers that make up your poly-marker tests, one of them is called LDLR; is that right?

94 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

95 MR. NEUFELD:

And how many different versions are there of the LDLR marker?

96 DR. COTTON:

In that--as that test is able to detect it, two.

97 MR. NEUFELD:

All right. So would you agree that, for instance, there's more diversity in eye color within the population than there is for the LDLR mark that you use for forensic testing?

98 DR. COTTON:

Well, it's probably not a great comparison, but in--the point is correct.

99 MR. NEUFELD:

Well, would you agree also that for--that there's not a single RFLP that you actually utilize that would be unique to any one person? I guess that's redundant. Would be that one person would have and that no one else would have? Is that a fair statement, that's a single RFLP?

100 DR. COTTON:

I don't think that there's--I don't think we actually know the answer to that question.

101 MR. NEUFELD:

Well, for any of the RFLPs that were utilized in this case for which you profiled Mr. Simpson, is there any particular band that you have found that is totally unique in the human population?

102 DR. COTTON:

As the bands are measured in this test, there are probably not ones that are unique in the population.

103 MR. NEUFELD:

Okay. And I believe you also said that the first thing you do when conducting a DNA test and looking at the autorad is, you make a visual comparison; is that right?

104 DR. COTTON:

It's not the first thing we do when we're conducting a test, but--

105 MR. NEUFELD:

No. After looking at the autorad.

106 DR. COTTON:

--the first thing we do when you have the film off is to make a visual assessment of what's on that film.

107 MR. NEUFELD:

And correct me if I'm mistaken, Dr. Cotton, because I want to get this right, but if they are visually indistinguishable, do you then declare them to be a match?

108 DR. COTTON:

No.

109 MR. NEUFELD:

Do you declare them to be--to appear to be consistent with one another?

110 DR. COTTON:

Well, when--at that point, we're not declaring them to be anything because at that point, then you're going to go ahead and do the computer imagining system assessment of band size and then you would make an assessment as whether you had a match or not. So--

111 MR. NEUFELD:

And so would--I'm sorry. I didn't mean to interrupt.

112 DR. COTTON:

So you're not writing anything down. You're not saying I have this opinion. You're just going forward.

113 MR. NEUFELD:

All right. So--and you go forward to the computer because would you agree that it's necessary to have some objective and quantitative procedure for measuring the size of these bands?

114 DR. COTTON:

The computer gives you a quantitative procedure and it--and it assists you in having an objective procedure, but it doesn't completely provide an objective procedure because the machine isn't smart enough to make the judgments that the human eye can make.

115 MR. NEUFELD:

So it's a combination then of the person with the computer that gives you an objective and quantitative procedure for measuring the size of the bands?

116 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

117 MR. NEUFELD:

Now, you mentioned that given the limitations of the system, the imprecision of the system, you said that no band would be unique in your system; is that correct?

118 DR. COTTON:

For a single genetic location.

119 MR. NEUFELD:

Right.

120 DR. COTTON:

I mean we don't really know. I'm just saying, based on what we do know and our experience, I wouldn't want to say that there was one that was unique. So--

121 MR. NEUFELD:

Well, you mentioned, when you're talking about imprecision, that if bands don't necessarily line up exactly, in other words, one band could have more base pairs than another band, under your system and given its imprecision, you would still declare a match; is that correct?

122 DR. COTTON:

If they're close enough in their measured number of base pairs, yes.

123 MR. NEUFELD:

All right. Let me ask you, just to illustrate this point, assume this is the autorad and you have a band in lane 1, all right? And that band is--let's call it 10,000 base pairs. In other words, your computer has looked at that band and measured it and determined that it is a 10,000 base pair band.

124 DR. COTTON:

Fine.

125 MR. NEUFELD:

All right? Okay. Now, given your system's imprecision, how much bigger could a band be or smaller could a band be than 10,000 base pairs and you still declare it a match under your procedure?

126 DR. COTTON:

If you want the precise answer to that question, I need to look in our standard operating procedure. But if you'll accept something that's reasonably close--

127 MR. NEUFELD:

I will.

128 DR. COTTON:

--the figure would be about four percent. There's a whole set of figures. So I'm trying to remember what the figure is in that size range, but four percent is going to be close to whatever the actual figure is.

129 MR. NEUFELD:

Okay. Now, four percent of 10,000 is approximately what?

400?

130 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

131 MR. NEUFELD:

So if a band in lane 2 was let's say a little bit larger, 10,400 base pairs, under your system's imprecision, you would still declare a match between these two bands even though one has 400 more base pairs to it than the other; is that correct?

132 DR. COTTON:

Yes. Given our--my example of four percent, yes.

133 MR. NEUFELD:

Okay. Well, is that a correct approximation? If it's not, please give me another one.

134 DR. COTTON:

I'm just telling you, it's close.

135 MR. NEUFELD:

Okay.

136 DR. COTTON:

I--I just don't remember the exact set of figures.

137 MR. NEUFELD:

And, likewise, if the band was smaller than 10,000 and was only let's say 9,600 base pairs, under your system's imprecision, you would still declare a match between the 9,600 base pair band and the 10,000 base pair band; is that correct?

138 DR. COTTON:

That's right.

139 MR. NEUFELD:

Okay.

140 MR. NEUFELD:

One moment.

141 (Brief pause.)
142 MR. NEUFELD:

Now, would you agree, Dr. Cotton, that within that range that I gave you there, 9,600 to 10,400 base pairs, there could be in fact, in reality that is, different and distinct alleles?

143 DR. COTTON:

Of course.

144 MR. NEUFELD:

Given the imprecision of your system, Dr. Cotton, that you've just described, if an item of evidence and a suspect have a band, a particular band which in fact differ by, in our example here, let's say 400 base pairs, then you would declare the suspect and the item to be a match, is that right, just for that band?

145 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

146 MR. NEUFELD:

And even if in fact the suspect's band represented a different allele than the evidentiary allele, you would still make that declaration of a match given your system's imprecision for that single band; is that correct?

147 DR. COTTON:

Well, let me be clear here. In our laboratory, we don't ever report a match on--based on a single band.

148 MR. NEUFELD:

Right.

149 DR. COTTON:

But if you're asking me, do you have this size band and this size band and they're within the correct range, are they going to be called a match, the answer is yes.

150 MR. NEUFELD:

Just so I can understand the system, and in fact in this particular case, when you actually did computer sizings--you did computer sizings of the bands in this case, didn't you?

151 DR. COTTON:

Oh, yes.

152 MR. NEUFELD:

And when you compared, for instance, a band in lane 52 and then you sized a band in Mr. Simpson's reference lane, the number of base pairs that your computer came up with was not the same number for both those lanes; isn't that correct?

153 DR. COTTON:

They're not identical. That's correct.

154 MR. NEUFELD:

Okay. Now--

155 MR. NEUFELD:

One moment, your Honor.

156 (Brief pause.)
157 MR. NEUFELD:

Now, I take it, Dr. Cotton, that to arrive at a frequency of 1 in 170 million people, you did not test the blood of 170 million people?

158 DR. COTTON:

That's obviously correct.

159 MR. NEUFELD:

In fact, you didn't test the blood of even a million people; is that right?

160 DR. COTTON:

Not in my lifetime.

161 MR. NEUFELD:

Or even 100,000 people?

162 DR. COTTON:

We tested, as I said before, for the database, the size ranges from about 150 to about 325. If you add all the people in the database up, all three racial groups, comes to around 5- to 600.

163 MR. NEUFELD:

And it's taking a number--well, let me ask you. You gave a number though, for instance, for Mr.--for the profile, Mr. Simpson's profile, you said you expect to see it in 1 out of 170 million people in the African-American population; is that right?

164 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

165 MR. NEUFELD:

Okay. And how large is your African-American database from which you generated that number?

166 DR. COTTON:

If you'll hang on just a minute, I'll tell you.

167 MR. NEUFELD:

Certainly.

168 (Brief pause.)
169 DR. COTTON:

I'm ready.

170 MR. NEUFELD:

Okay.

171 DR. COTTON:

The--what I'll do is read you the sizes for the number of people that are in each probe one by one because they're not all the same.

172 MR. NEUFELD:

Well, let me ask you this then. You mean, there's not--is there a single group of people who your laboratory has identified as--as African Americans on whom you ran all five of the probes that were utilized in this case?

173 DR. COTTON:

No. There's a lot of overlap between who's, for example, been tested with MS1 and MS31 and so on. But the samples do not have--most of the samples do not have all five probes across each sample.

174 MR. NEUFELD:

All right. Can you tell us how many of the samples you did run all five probes on in the African-American population?

175 DR. COTTON:

Not without going back and doing a lot of figuring from the database. I don't know that off the top of my head.

176 MR. NEUFELD:

All right. What I would simply ask is that between tonight perhaps when we break and tomorrow, maybe you can make some phone calls and there's someone back at Cellmark that can help you learn that so I can ask you tomorrow.

177 DR. COTTON:

I'll try to get that information. I don't know--I don't know--I haven't been at Cellmark for a while. I don't know which of my lab staff are available to help me find things in the lab.

178 MR. NEUFELD:

Thank you very much.

179 THE COURT:

Take into account the time difference too.

180 MR. NEUFELD:

Certainly.

181 MR. NEUFELD:

Well, putting that aside and starting out with your premise that you can't really say how many people were subjected to all five probes, why don't you give me the range then for within the--your African-American database?

182 DR. COTTON:

There are 240 people for MS1, 238 for MS31, 223 for MS43, 200 for G3 and a 146 for YNH24.

KEY QUOTE
183 MR. NEUFELD:

So would you agree that at a maximum, the greatest number of African Americans in your African-American database who have been subjected to all five probes would be that 140 something number you gave for YNH24?

184 DR. COTTON:

146.

185 MR. NEUFELD:

146 people?

186 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

187 MR. NEUFELD:

Okay. And so based on your analysis of 146 people of African-American ancestry, you arrived at a combined frequency in this case of 1 in 170 million people; is that correct?

188 DR. COTTON:

No, it's not because some of the probes had quite a large number, more than 146. And since you're looking at the frequency of bands for each individual probe, the frequencies are not--the fact that you don't have each person across all five probes doesn't affect your ability to look at a frequency for a specific probe.

189 MR. NEUFELD:

Fine, Dr. Cotton. So it's 200--what's the largest number--what's the largest number in the database for any of those five probes?

190 DR. COTTON:

240.

191 MR. NEUFELD:

So what you did was, you looked at the DNA profiles of 240 people, and from that, you extrapolated a number for the frequency of Mr. Simpson's DNA profile of 1 in 170 million people; is that correct?

192 DR. COTTON:

That's correct.

193 MR. NEUFELD:

And would you agree that there has been some controversy about the appropriateness of using databases that size for extrapolating these kinds of large numbers?

194 MR. CLARKE:

Well, excuse me. Objection. Hearsay.

195 THE COURT:

Overruled.

196 MR. CLARKE:

Also irrelevant.

197 THE COURT:

Overruled.

198 DR. COTTON:

I don't think that the controversies have arisen around the size of the database and there is literature to support databases of this size for this purpose.

199 MR. NEUFELD:

Well, let me go back--

200 MR. NEUFELD:

One moment.

201 (Discussion held off the record between the Deputy District Attorney and Defense counsel.)
202 MR. NEUFELD:

One moment, your Honor.

203 (Discussion held off the record between the Deputy District Attorney and Defense counsel.)
204 MR. NEUFELD:

I just need to get the diagrams that Dr. Cotton made yesterday.

205 MR. CLARKE:

I think they're maybe with the court clerk.

206 THE COURT:

Which diagrams? The hand-drawn diagrams?

207 MR. NEUFELD:

The hand-drawn diagrams.

208 MR. NEUFELD:

Now, to compile this African-American database, did you seek subjects--did you seek subjects from different countries in Africa?

209 DR. COTTON:

No.

210 MR. NEUFELD:

Did you seek subjects from different African-American communities scattered throughout the United States?

211 DR. COTTON:

No, we did not.

212 MR. NEUFELD:

In fact, your entire database--your entire African-American database comes from the red cross--I'm sorry comes from the red cross in Detroit, Michigan; isn't that right?

213 DR. COTTON:

Yes, it does.

214 MR. NEUFELD:

And would you agree that to go from a database of 250 African Americans in Detroit to a number of 1 in 170 million to one in 1.2 billion, you had to make certain assumptions about the independence of these different genetic characteristics?

215 DR. COTTON:

There are a whole series of assumptions built into that calculation, and one of them is independence, but there are also tests for independence in these databases which have been done and they have been shown based on these tests that the markers are independent.

216 MR. NEUFELD:

Now, Dr. Cotton, would you agree, however, that they are based on a number of assumptions, one of which you said is that these different genetic markers are inherited independently of one another?

217 DR. COTTON:

Yes. But what I'm saying is that there is data to back up that assumption and, therefore, it is not really an assumption at this point.

218 MR. NEUFELD:

Would you agree, Dr. Cotton, that there is--or I'm sorry--would you agree, Dr. Cotton, that there has been substantial controversy in the scientific community about that various assumption that you've just described?

219 MR. CLARKE:

Same objection. Also hearsay.

220 THE COURT:

Sustained. Why don't you rephrase the question. It's vague.

221 MR. NEUFELD:

You were talk--

222 MR. NEUFELD:

One moment.

223 (Discussion held off the record between Defense counsel.)
224 MR. NEUFELD:

Referring specifically to the assumption of independence, would you agree that with respect to that assumption and whether or not there is adequate data to demonstrate that it's an appropriate assumption, that that itself has been the subject of significant controversy in the scientific community?

225 MR. CLARKE:

Objection. Assumes facts not in evidence.

226 THE COURT:

Sustained.

227 MR. NEUFELD:

I'm asking her if it is.

228 THE COURT:

I understand. Sustained. Why don't you rephrase the question, counsel.

229 (Discussion held off the record between Defense counsel.)
230 MR. NEUFELD:

All right. Well, Dr. Cotton, had there been controversy in the past about that very point?

231 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

232 MR. NEUFELD:

In fact, Dr. Cotton, that book that you had in your purse, what--or your briefcase, could--what--could you take it out again, please, the NRC report?

233 DR. COTTON:

The NRC report?

234 MR. NEUFELD:

Yes.

235 (The witness complies.)
236 DR. COTTON:

The NRC report says that there's controversy around that various assumption--

237 MR. CLARKE:

Excuse me. Objection. Hearsay, your Honor.

238 THE COURT:

Sustained. Sustained. The jury is to disregard the implication of the question.

239 MR. NEUFELD:

Dr. Cotton, isn't there an entire chapter--

240 MR. CLARKE:

Excuse me. Objection, your Honor.

241 THE COURT:

Sustained. Sustained. It's hearsay.

242 MR. NEUFELD:

Dr. Cotton, you said that--

243 THE COURT:

What's the nature of the controversy, doctor?

244 DR. COTTON:

There have been a few people who are experts in population genetics who have not agreed with the way statistical calculations are made for forensic casework as given in the RFLP example. There are also a large number of people who agree that the statistical calculations are appropriate. So depending on who you phoned up, you might find an opinion one way or the other.

245 MR. NEUFELD:

So are you saying that you disagree with what the NRC says--

246 MR. CLARKE:

Excuse me. Objection. Hearsay, your Honor.

247 THE COURT:

Sustained. Sustained.

248 MR. NEUFELD:

Well, you said there are a few people, Dr. Cotton, who take that position. Isn't it a fact, Dr. Cotton, that as recently as November of 1994, more than two dozen --

249 MR. CLARKE:

Excuse me. Objection, your Honor.

250 THE COURT:

Sustained. Sustained.

251 MR. CLARKE:

May we approach?

252 MR. NEUFELD:

I'm asking if she's aware.

253 THE COURT:

No. You're calling--the question and answer calls for a hearsay conclusion as to the content of something, counsel. That's the problem. Sustained.

254 (Discussion held off the record between the Deputy District Attorney and Defense counsel.)
255 (Discussion held off the record between Defense counsel.)
256 MR. NEUFELD:

When you said, Dr. Cotton, a moment ago that there's a few scientists who are critical of that assumption, how many did you mean by a few?

257 MR. CLARKE:

Again, objection. I think this is also hearsay also, your Honor.

258 THE COURT:

Overruled.

259 DR. COTTON:

Based on the number of published articles that state an opinion one way or another, I would say there might be--this is sort of a little hard to answer, but maybe something around five or six people who have been vocal in their opposition to these calculations.

260 MR. NEUFELD:

All right. Dr. Cotton, let me ask you this.

261 MR. CLARKE:

Excuse me. Could the witness finish her answer, please?

262 MR. NEUFELD:

The question--

263 THE COURT:

Yes.

264 MR. NEUFELD:

I think that was responsive. And beyond that would be--

265 THE COURT:

Well, she was still speaking when you jumped in there, counsel.

266 MR. NEUFELD:

Sorry, your Honor.

267 THE COURT:

And there's an objection. When the objection is made, you need to allow me to rule on it. Did you finish your answer, doctor?

268 DR. COTTON:

Yeah, I think so.

269 THE COURT:

All right. Next question.

270 MR. NEUFELD:

Do you know who Dr. Ronald Acton is?

271 DR. COTTON:

Yes, I know Dr. Acton.

272 MR. NEUFELD:

Has Dr. Acton written on the subject of population frequencies?

273 DR. COTTON:

I'm aware of one paper that he's written.

274 MR. NEUFELD:

Do you know who Dr. David balding is?

275 DR. COTTON:

Vaguely.

276 MR. NEUFELD:

Do you know who Professor Joel Cohen is?

277 MR. CLARKE:

Objection. Relevance at this point, your Honor.

278 THE COURT:

Overruled.

279 DR. COTTON:

I've read one paper by Dr. Cohen.

280 MR. NEUFELD:

You've heard of him?

281 DR. COTTON:

Well, through seeing his name on--as the author of a paper.

282 MR. NEUFELD:

Do you know who Professor and Dr. Jerry Coyne is?

283 DR. COTTON:

I've heard of him. I haven't written--I mean, haven't read anything that he's writ--I'm not aware that he's written anything on this topic.

284 MR. NEUFELD:

Is he a population geneticist?

285 DR. COTTON:

I don't know. I don't know. I'm sorry.

286 MR. NEUFELD:

Fine. Are you aware--are you aware of any testimony that he's given, any cases without saying what it is?

287 MR. CLARKE:

Objection, your Honor. Irrelevant and hearsay.

288 THE COURT:

Sustained.

289 MR. NEUFELD:

Do you know who Dr. Peter Donnelly is?

290 DR. COTTON:

No.

291 MR. NEUFELD:

Do you know who Dr. Seymour Geiser is?

292 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

293 MR. NEUFELD:

Is he a Professor at the University of Minnesota?

294 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

295 MR. NEUFELD:

And Dr. Joel Cohen is a Professor at Rockefeller University?

296 MR. CLARKE:

Objection as to relevance, your Honor.

297 THE COURT:

Overruled. Do you know that?

298 DR. COTTON:

I don't know.

299 THE COURT:

All right. Proceed.

300 MR. NEUFELD:

Do you know who Dr. Paul Hagerman is?

301 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

302 MR. NEUFELD:

He is a Professor at the University of Colorado?

303 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

304 MR. NEUFELD:

You know who Dr. Daniel Krane is?

305 DR. COTTON:

Yes. I've read one of his papers. When I say yes, I don't know these people personally, but I may have either heard of them through court issues or read something that they wrote.

306 MR. NEUFELD:

Do you know who Dr. Martin Kreitman is?

307 DR. COTTON:

No.

308 MR. NEUFELD:

Do you know who Dr. Charles Langley is?

309 DR. COTTON:

No.

310 MR. NEUFELD:

Do you know who Dr.--Professor Richard Lewontin is?

311 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

312 MR. NEUFELD:

He's a Professor at Harvard University?

313 DR. COTTON:

I understand that's where he is.

314 MR. NEUFELD:

He's a population geneticist?

315 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

316 MR. NEUFELD:

Do you know who Gary Littman is?

317 DR. COTTON:

No.

318 MR. NEUFELD:

Do you know who Michael lynch is?

319 DR. COTTON:

No.

320 MR. NEUFELD:

By the way, I didn't say Dr. Before each name, but just so the record is clear, each one of these is a doctor.

321 MR. CLARKE:

Well, excuse me, your Honor. Counsel is testifying now.

322 THE COURT:

He is. Proceed. The jury is to disregard that as--

323 MR. NEUFELD:

Do you know who Dr. Teri Markow is?

324 DR. COTTON:

No.

325 MR. NEUFELD:

Do you know who Dr. Lawrence Mueller is?

326 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

327 MR. NEUFELD:

Is he a Professor at the University of California at Irvine?

328 DR. COTTON:

As far as I know, yes.

329 THE COURT:

In what? In what?

330 MR. NEUFELD:

In the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology?

331 MR. CLARKE:

Well, excuse me, your Honor. Is counsel testifying again?

332 MR. NEUFELD:

No. I'm putting it as a question.

333 THE COURT:

Question.

334 MR. NEUFELD:

Do you know if he is a Professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology?

335 DR. COTTON:

I think so, yes.

336 MR. NEUFELD:

Do you know who Dr. Richard Nichols is?

337 DR. COTTON:

No.

338 MR. NEUFELD:

Do you know who Dr. Stephen Peiper is?

339 DR. COTTON:

No.

340 MR. NEUFELD:

Do you know who Dr. Rollin Richmond is?

341 DR. COTTON:

No.

342 MR. NEUFELD:

Do you know who Dr. William shields is?

343 MR. CLARKE:

Your Honor, I'm going to object again as to relevance.

344 THE COURT:

Overruled.

345 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

346 MR. NEUFELD:

Is Dr. William shields a Professor of Population Genetics and Genetics at the State University of New York at Syracuse?

347 DR. COTTON:

Yes, he is.

348 MR. NEUFELD:

And do you know who Dr. Terry speed is?

349 DR. COTTON:

No.

350 MR. NEUFELD:

Do you know who Dr. Charles Taylor is?

351 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

352 MR. NEUFELD:

Is Dr. Charles Taylor a Professor of the Department of Biology of the University of California in Los Angeles?

353 DR. COTTON:

He was last time I was aware of him.

354 MR. NEUFELD:

And have you heard of Dr. Elizabeth Thompson?

355 DR. COTTON:

Yes.

356 MR. NEUFELD:

And she is the Chairman of the Department of Statistics at the University of Washington in Seattle?

357 DR. COTTON:

I know she's at Seattle. I have no idea what her position is there.

358 MR. NEUFELD:

And do you know who Dr. Michael Turelli is?

359 DR. COTTON:

No.

360 MR. NEUFELD:

Do you know who Dr. Donald--

361 MR. NEUFELD:

One moment.

362 MR. NEUFELD:

Excuse me. Do you know who Dr. Donald Ylvisaker is?

363 DR. COTTON:

No.

364 MR. NEUFELD:

And do you know who Dr. Sandy Zabell is?

365 DR. COTTON:

No.

366 MR. NEUFELD:

And finally, do you know who Dr. Marcus Feldman is?

367 DR. COTTON:

The name sounds familiar, but again--

368 MR. NEUFELD:

Would it refresh your recollection if you knew that he was a Professor in the Department of Biology at Stanford University in California?

369 MR. CLARKE:

Excuse me. Assumes facts not in evidence.

370 THE COURT:

Sustained.

371 DR. COTTON:

I'm sorry. It doesn't help.

372 MR. NEUFELD:

Now, hypothetically, Dr. Cotton, if all the people on that list--

373 MR. CLARKE:

Excuse me, your Honor. Objection.

374 THE COURT:

No, no, no, no, no, no.

375 MR. NEUFELD:

Dr. Cotton, at any time in the last five months, have you seen a letter--

376 MR. CLARKE:

Excuse me.

377 MR. NEUFELD:

I'm not saying the contents of it, your Honor.

378 MR. CLARKE:

Objection. Irrelevant. 721.

379 THE COURT:

Sustained.

380 (Discussion held off the record between Defense counsel.)
381 MR. NEUFELD:

Dr. Cotton, at least as to the people whose names you recognized, do you agree that they have articulated that there was--

382 MR. CLARKE:

Objection, your Honor. Hearsay. Could we approach sidebar?

383 THE COURT:

No. Sustained.

384 MR. NEUFELD:

I would ask that this be marked next in order to show it to the witness.

385 THE COURT:

What?

386 MR. NEUFELD:

A letter.

387 THE COURT:

All right. Next in order.

388 (Deft's 1145 for id = letter)
389 (Brief pause.)
390 THE COURT:

No. Just hand it--

391 MR. CLARKE:

Could I see the exhibit, your Honor?

392 MR. NEUFELD:

Sure.

393 THE COURT:

All right. For the record, is this a letter in science magazine?

394 MR. NEUFELD:

No.

395 THE COURT:

What is it?

396 MR. CLARKE:

May we approach, please, your Honor?

397 THE COURT:

No. What is it? Just tell me what it is.

398 MR. NEUFELD:

It is--I'll tell--

399 THE COURT:

Mr. Neufeld.

400 MR. NEUFELD:

May I have my exhibit?

401 MR. CLARKE:

I would like to look at it first.

402 THE COURT:

Okay.

403 MR. CLARKE:

Your Honor, this is apparently a letter--

404 MR. NEUFELD:

Your Honor, now you want a speaking--

405 THE COURT:

Counsel, what is it?

406 MR. NEUFELD:

It is a letter written to nature signed by 25 scientists.

407 THE COURT:

Thank you. Thank you.

408 MR. CLARKE:

Well, your Honor, that was rejected and never published.

409 MR. NEUFELD:

Your Honor, it was rejected because--

410 THE COURT:

Wait.

411 MR. NEUFELD:

That was--

412 THE COURT:

Both of you.

Temperature

tense

Key Quotes (5)

Dr. Robin Cotton
Not in my lifetime.
Wry admission that the 1-in-170-million figure was not derived from testing anywhere near a million people — a setup for Neufeld's database-size attack.
Dr. Robin Cotton
There are 240 people for MS1, 238 for MS31, 223 for MS43, 200 for G3 and a 146 for YNH24.
Reveals the actual database sizes underpinning the frequency estimate — strikingly small numbers for a claim of 1 in 170 million.
Dr. Robin Cotton
Yes, it does. [The entire African-American database comes from the Red Cross in Detroit, Michigan.]
Concedes the database has no geographic diversity — a single city, single donor pool used to represent the entire African-American population.
Dr. Robin Cotton
With the same caveat, assuming there's enough contamination, the answer is yes.
Agrees that cross-contamination between Bundy swatches and Simpson's fresh reference sample in the evidence processing room could produce the same DNA results.
Lance A. Ito
Some lobsters don't have claws.
Ito interjects during a DNA analogy about lobsters, producing genuine courtroom laughter and a rare light moment in an otherwise dense technical cross.

Evidence (4)

Defendant's 1144
Defense chart listing alternative explanations for the DNA results (contamination scenarios, coincidental match, etc.)
Introduced and used as framework for cross-examination
People's 257-d
Autoradiograph (autorad) showing DNA band results from evidence samples
Displayed on Elmo to illustrate band comparison and match-window imprecision
Defendant's 1145
Letter to Nature magazine signed by approximately 25 scientists challenging DNA statistical assumptions; rejected for publication
Marked for identification but blocked from substantive use by hearsay objections
Informal
NRC (National Research Council) report on forensic DNA evidence — carried by Dr. Cotton in her briefcase
Referenced but contents blocked by sustained hearsay objections; Ito asked Cotton to describe the controversy directly instead

Notable Exchanges (4)

Peter NeufeldDr. Robin Cotton
Neufeld systematically lists all contamination and alternative-explanation scenarios from Defense exhibit 1144, getting Cotton to confirm each one could produce identical DNA results — including deliberate planting — before noting that only a coincidental match has a calculable frequency.
strategic
Peter NeufeldDr. Robin Cotton
Neufeld reads out roughly 25 named population geneticists and asks Cotton whether she recognizes each one, building toward the blocked question about a letter they co-signed criticizing forensic DNA statistics. Cotton recognizes only a handful, undermining the implicit premise.
strategic
Peter NeufeldDr. Robin CottonGeorge ClarkeLance A. Ito
Neufeld attempts multiple times to surface the NRC report and the 25-scientist letter, each time blocked by Clarke's hearsay objections and Ito's sustained rulings. Ito himself then asks Cotton to describe the nature of the controversy directly, partially salvaging Neufeld's point.
heated
Peter NeufeldDr. Robin Cotton
Neufeld walks Cotton through the 4% match-window imprecision, establishing that two bands differing by 400 base pairs (9,600 vs. 10,400) would still be declared a match — and that those could represent genuinely distinct alleles.
revealing

Light Moments (3)

Lance A. Ito / Peter Neufeld
During an analogy about human DNA giving us hands rather than claws, Neufeld references lobsters. Ito interjects 'Some lobsters don't have claws,' prompting laughter. Neufeld responds 'It's an eastern thing, your Honor. Now, you have Maine.'
Dr. Robin Cotton
When asked if he had tested even 100,000 people to derive the 1-in-170-million figure, Dr. Cotton responds 'Not in my lifetime.'
Dr. Robin Cotton
During the DNA-as-species-definition discussion, Neufeld says the DNA giving us hands rather than claws is the same in everyone. Cotton responds 'We hope so.'

Credibility Attacks (4)

⚔ Dr. Robin Cotton / Cellmark methodology
Foundation challenge — database size
Neufeld establishes that the '1 in 170 million' frequency was extrapolated from 146-240 African-American samples, all sourced from a single Red Cross donation pool in Detroit, with no geographic diversity.
⚔ Dr. Robin Cotton / Cellmark methodology
Scientific controversy — independence assumption
Neufeld attempts to show that the product rule (multiplying marker frequencies) rests on a contested independence assumption rejected by dozens of population geneticists, partially succeeding when Ito asked Cotton to describe the controversy herself.
⚔ Dr. Robin Cotton / Cellmark methodology
Systemic imprecision — match window
Neufeld extracts Cotton's admission that bands differing by up to 4% (e.g., 9,600 vs. 10,400 base pairs) are still declared matches, and that such bands could in fact represent distinct alleles, undermining the precision of the match declaration.
⚔ DNA results generally
Alternative explanations — contamination and planting
Neufeld secures Cotton's agreement that cross-contamination between Bundy swatches and Simpson's fresh reference sample in the evidence processing room — including deliberate contamination — could produce the exact same DNA profile.

Witness Demeanor

(Brief pause.) — witness retrieves database figures from notes
(Brief pause.) — witness prepares to read individual probe database sizes
(Laughter.) — following the lobster exchange with Judge Ito
(The witness complies.) — Cotton retrieves NRC report from her briefcase when asked

Objections

17 objections (11 sustained, 6 overruled)
Proceeding 6021 • 412 utterances • Prosecution witness
Criminal Trial
Department 103
⚖️ Start
📂 MAY 11, 1995 📄 Cross-examination of Dr. Robin
MAY 11, 1995 KRT DvH TD