📄 Sidebar: carpet fiber statistics — Wednesday, November 13, 1996
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▲ Day 14 of 57

Sidebar: carpet fiber statistics

Date: Wednesday, November 13, 1996 • Utterances: 80
Plaintiff's counsel Medvene sought to introduce carpet fiber statistics showing only 375 Ford Broncos with matching carpet were registered in LA County at the time of the murders, with a frequency of six in 100,000. Judge Fujisaki excluded the entire statistical framework under Evidence Code 352, finding that dressing up circumstantial evidence in numbers created prejudicial 'patina' that far outweighed any probative value. The judge invoked a prior case — a criminal conviction overturned based on similar probability math — and told counsel the real evidence was the physical commonality itself, not the numbers attached to it.
1 (The following proceedings were held at the bench, with the reporter.)
2 MR. MEDVENE:

This is, incidentally, our last area, Your Honor; be about five more minutes.

The relevance is that we would be able to show through this witness -- and depositions have been taken of all the underlying people defense wanted to take depositions of to support these calculations and numbers.

That of the total number of Ford vehicles made during that period, we're able to show that there were only 375 of the Broncos of the type that Mr. Simpson drove registered in LA County on the day of the murders; that's step one.

Step two is that the likelihood of encountering a Ford with the same kind of carpet as Mr. Simpson's had on the day of the murders was three in 10,000.

And the likelihood of encountering a Bronco with the same carpet at the time of the murders was six in 100,000.

So that's where the testimony's going.

But the first step is, in terms of likelihood that if you, alone in LA County on the date of the murders, there were only 375 Broncos that had the kind of carpet fiber that was found on critical items of evidence at the crime scene, as I say, there were depositions taken of all the underlying witnesses going to these numbers and statistics. And we feel that while the defense can certainly argue it could be one of those other 375, we think we have a right to argue, as we do with the hair and fiber and other evidence, that it's one more factor that points to Mr. Simpson.

And the defense can certainly argue well, it could have been 374 other people; somebody could have driven in from out of state, or whatever. But we believe we can show the uniqueness of this carpet fiber, and this is a way of showing it.

3 MR. LEONARD:

Your Honor, this is raising what turns out to be an art form, and you'll learn that to a level, that absolutely is misleading.

4 THE COURT:

When am I going to learn?

5 MR. LEONARD:

You'll see when you finish with this witness. Raising to a level of scientific certainty with this fancy probability of calculation, I mean, what difference does it make if there's 375 Broncos. We know there are at least 72,000 vehicles out there with the same type of carpet.

6 MR. BAKER:

What he has done -- he hasn't said where the carpet --

7 THE COURT:

You're submitting the first --

8 MR. BAKER:

No, we don't need that for this. They've never excluded the fact that Masland makes this.

9 THE COURT:

I call to your attention a case called People versus One Gold Cadillac or One Pink Cadillac, a deputy district attorney, Ray Sinetar from L.A. County who got a conviction based on exactly the kind of evidence you offer, and they overturned it.

10 MR. PETROCELLI:

On what ground?

11 THE COURT:

On the ground that you can't prove these things by running numbers.

12 MR. MEDVENE:

I don't know that.

13 THE COURT:

You cannot. You know, that was a criminal case; they said you can't.

14 MR. PETROCELLI:

Doesn't it go to weight, Your Honor.

15 THE COURT:

The facts of the case were, is that a black guy with a white prostitute driving a certain color Cadillac automobile, and at a certain location. So Ray Sinetar, who was a classmate of mine in law school, and he was Order of the Coif one of the bright guys who became district attorney of Ventura County. He had this theory, just like yours, of proving that statistically there was nobody else -- statistically, there would be only an astronomical combination of those factors in this particular location, indicating that this guy was the guy.

16 MR. MEDVENE:

But wasn't that case -- I don't remember clearly, but I think I read it -- but doesn't the case deal with probability woman and a man with somebody of the opposite race at a particular place at a particular time at a particular location.

17 THE COURT:

Just like yours.

18 MR. MEDVENE:

No, no it's different, if Your Honor please, because here we have -- we know you had a Bronco here. We have a witness, Mr. Heidstra, I believe, that testified that the car he saw leaving was consistent with being a Bronco. And we know --

Wait. I'm sorry.

But we know we have carpet fiber found on items that Mr. Simpson had. There was carpet fibers in his Bronco.

19 THE COURT:

Fine. So what do you need all this mumbo jumbo statistics for?

KEY QUOTE
20 MR. MEDVENE:

Well, minimally, I assume I can get down to the rarity, that there's only 375 registered, if I can't get the probability.

21 THE COURT:

How many are registered to O.J. Simpson?

KEY QUOTE
22 MR. MEDVENE:

One.

23 THE COURT:

How many of those --

24 MR. MEDVENE:

It's registered to Hertz.

25 THE COURT:

Okay.

And how many of those have his hair type, fibers, and how many of those are found on his property?

You know, your statistical analysis is meaningless when compared with the real import of the evidence that you are adducing through commonality of factors that point to the defendant. These numbers mean nothing.

26 MR. MEDVENE:

Well, if I can't get in the probability --

27 THE COURT:

These numbers give us -- these numbers give a plethora or a prelature of numbers to a conclusion that is just statistically meaningless in terms of evidentiary value.

Under 352 of the Evidence Code, I'm going to find it means nothing; that the aspect of it is so insignificant, that under 352.

I think the prejudicial aspect of throwing numbers you have up on a board to a jury, giving it the respectability of numbers, has a far prejudicial value compared to the probative value.

I think your probative value of the evidence is the essence of the evidence itself, not the numbers.

KEY QUOTE
28 MR. MEDVENE:

Your Honor, was the -- when you say putting evidence on the board, I mean, was that -- would there be a difference if we elicited the evidence from the witness. I don't --

29 THE COURT:

Means absolutely nothing.

30 MR. MEDVENE:

Are you saying the fact that there are only 375 Bronco vehicles registered in LA County at the time of the murders isn't a factor that we can argue.

31 THE COURT:

Mr. Medvene what significance does that have in connection, when contrasted with the evidence of commonality that it's evidence thus far.

32 MR. MEDVENE:

I understand that. I didn't want to leave anything off of the table --

33 THE COURT:

Well, this one --

34 MR. MEDVENE:

-- unless you tell me I have to.

35 THE COURT:

Defense objects to it. And I see a more reasonable ground for exclusion.

36 MR. PETROCELLI:

We are going to get into frequencies in the blood on DNA tests.

37 THE COURT:

That has a different scientific relevance.

38 MR. PETROCELLI:

Okay.

39 MR. MEDVENE:

But --

40 THE COURT:

Those are scientifically, statistically accepted in the community. I presume you're going to have testimony that goes to that.

41 MR. PETROCELLI:

Absolutely.

42 THE COURT:

All right. This means nothing.

43 MR. PETROCELLI:

Okay.

44 MR. MEDVENE:

But --

45 THE COURT:

This is a big waste of time.

46 MR. MEDVENE:

Well, isn't a statistical getting it to 375, Your Honor?

In other words, if the probability is one thing, but the fact that only that many Broncos -- that's a fact. I mean, that's something that they've examined the people on. Those are the number of vehicles registered.

47 THE COURT:

What.

48 MR. MEDVENE:

Well,

49 MR. LEONARD:

Judge, they're triple-teaming me here.

KEY QUOTE
50 MR. KELLY:

You're not even supposed to be here.

Judge, if we elicited the testimony of the 375 and don't try to put it in context of all the big numbers, can we just leave it at that?

51 MR. LEONARD:

Oh yeah, that would be great.

52 MR. KELLY:

No, you're avoiding it.

53 THE COURT:

What's the relevance of 375?

54 MR. KELLY:

The same with the number of gloves ordered or anything else. It's the relative improbabilities, in a general sense. You have a sexual evidence case, you've got to put all these different pieces of evidence together. It's just one link in the chain.

If we use that and avoid all the different large numbers, I think it makes --

55 THE COURT:

That's a pretty weak link.

56 MR. KELLY:

It's a link, nonetheless.

57 THE COURT:

The reason I'm going to sustain the objection is because the -- because the patina of throwing numbers up there is grossly prejudicial to the probative value. And under 352, I'm going to sustain the objection.

Take it up on appeal.

58 MR. KELLY:

Understand that, Judge.

59 MR. MEDVENE:

May I ask -- I don't want to do it in front of the jury if I can't ask it, because this is my last area; it will be my last question. And I don't want to ask it if I can't --

60 THE COURT:

I made my ruling.

61 MR. MEDVENE:

I understand; I'm not challenging you.

62 THE COURT:

Would you like to be part of this, Mr. Leonard, or you don't care?

63 MR. LEONARD:

No, I care.

64 THE COURT:

If you don't care, then I'll make a ruling without you.

65 MR. LEONARD:

I thought you made your ruling.

66 THE COURT:

I did. I'm trying to make a ruling.

67 MR. MEDVENE:

I'm just asking if I may ask this question. I don't want to ask it if you think it's improper, because of your ruling.

May I ask as the last question, based on your investigation, were the number of vehicles with the same kind of carpet as Mr. Simpson's registered in LA County in June of 1994, was that a small number.

If they don't want to get into the number, have just that one question.

68 MR. LEONARD:

That leaves me at a disadvantage because then I have to reconstruct all this. That leaves it hanging out there.

69 MR. PETROCELLI:

We don't want to leave it hanging.

70 MR. MEDVENE:

I don't want to leave it. They've left this area open.

71 THE COURT:

Those numbers are meaningless.

72 MR. MEDVENE:

Okay. I just want to get a question, because I've been kind of set up here in a sense, that they knew this testimony was coming; they waited. There was no motion. We started the testimony. And I just want something that I can finish up with.

I mean, it's not like any of these things were a secret, Dan, so ... no indication. We could have argued this out before the Judge before the questioning started.

So I would just like to establish that there are relatively few Bronco vehicles with this kind of carpet in LA County.

It's up to you if you want to open it.

73 MR. LEONARD:

All right. Leave it on my plate. We've already got 72,000 vehicles up there, and that there's --

74 MR. MEDVENE:

It's unfair --

75 MR. LEONARD:

No, it's not a setup.

76 MR. MEDVENE:

It's mis -- I didn't mean to use that, but to have up there, if there's 7,000 vehicles, puts me at a disadvantage because the real number is 375. If there's going to be this objection it could have been made before we started.

We didn't try springing this on anybody; we've been over this before. I've discussed it with Mr. Leonard.

77 MR. LEONARD:

What do you mean "real number" `375. It has no significance to the case whatsoever.

78 MR. MEDVENE:

That's another argument. The real number in the sense that's the number of Broncos that was registered on the night of the murder with the same kind of carpet.

79 MR. LEONARD:

So what?

80 THE COURT:

I'm going to sustain the objection.

Temperature

tense

Key Quotes (5)

Hiroshi Fujisaki
So what do you need all this mumbo jumbo statistics for?
The judge's bottom-line dismissal of the entire statistical framework, cutting through the argument to its logical endpoint — the physical evidence already ties Simpson to the crime scene without needing probability multipliers.
Hiroshi Fujisaki
These numbers give us -- these numbers give a plethora or a prelature of numbers to a conclusion that is just statistically meaningless in terms of evidentiary value.
Core of the EC 352 ruling: the numerics create false scientific authority for a conclusion the jury can reach from the evidence itself.
Hiroshi Fujisaki
I think the prejudicial aspect of throwing numbers you have up on a board to a jury, giving it the respectability of numbers, has a far prejudicial value compared to the probative value.
Explicit articulation of the 352 balancing test and why statistical probability evidence fails it here.
Hiroshi Fujisaki
How many are registered to O.J. Simpson? ... How many of those have his hair type, fibers, and how many of those are found on his property? Your statistical analysis is meaningless when compared with the real import of the evidence.
The judge reframes the argument: the actual probative force comes from physical evidence, not statistics — there's only one Bronco registered to Simpson/Hertz with his fibers on his property.
Dan Leonard
Judge, they're triple-teaming me here.
Lighter moment capturing the chaos of Medvene, Petrocelli, and Kelly all arguing simultaneously at the bench.

Evidence (4)

Informal
Carpet fiber frequency statistics: 375 Broncos with matching carpet registered in LA County on date of murders; three in 10,000 likelihood of encountering a Ford with same carpet; six in 100,000 likelihood for a Bronco specifically
offered by plaintiffs, excluded by court under EC 352
Informal
Ford Bronco vehicle registration data for LA County, June 1994
referenced in argument, excluded
Informal
Carpet fibers from Simpson's Bronco matched fibers found on evidence items at crime scene
referenced as underlying physical evidence (not the subject of the ruling)
Informal
Defense exhibit/argument that 72,000 vehicles total had the same carpet type
referenced by Leonard to counter the 375 figure

Notable Exchanges (4)

Hiroshi FujisakiEdward Medvene
Fujisaki invokes 'People v. One Gold Cadillac' — a case involving a black man with a white prostitute in a distinctive Cadillac, where his law school classmate Ray Sinetar won a conviction on probability statistics that was later overturned — as direct precedent for excluding the carpet fiber math. Medvene tries to distinguish it on the grounds that here there is already a physical Bronco in evidence, not just a statistical profile.
strategic/revealing
Hiroshi FujisakiDaniel Petrocelli
Petrocelli raises that DNA blood frequency statistics will be coming and asks whether those will be treated differently. Fujisaki distinguishes them immediately: DNA statistics are 'scientifically, statistically accepted in the community' and have different scientific relevance — making clear his ruling is narrow to the carpet math.
strategic
Edward MedveneDan LeonardJohn Kelly
After the ruling, plaintiffs' team attempts multiple fallback positions — can they just say '375 is a small number'? Can they avoid the large probability figures? Leonard objects to each, noting he'd already put 72,000 vehicles into evidence and any partial number leaves the jury with a misleading incomplete picture. Fujisaki ultimately refuses all compromises.
procedural
Edward MedveneDan Leonard
Medvene argues he was sandbagged — the defense knew this testimony was coming, filed no motion in limine, let him begin the testimony, and only objected mid-witness. Leonard denies it was a setup. Medvene concedes he misspoke but presses that if the objection was coming it should have been raised before questioning started.
heated

Light Moments (4)

Hiroshi Fujisaki
When Fujisaki explains the Gold Cadillac case will show counsel the problem with probability evidence, Medvene asks 'When am I going to learn?' — Fujisaki deadpans back 'You'll see when you finish with this witness.'
Dan Leonard
Leonard complains 'Judge, they're triple-teaming me here' as Medvene, Petrocelli, and Kelly all argue simultaneously at the bench.
John Kelly
Kelly tells Leonard 'You're not even supposed to be here' when Leonard objects to Kelly joining the argument.
Hiroshi Fujisaki
Fujisaki tells counsel 'Take it up on appeal' immediately after sustaining the objection.

Objections

1 objections (1 sustained, 0 overruled)
Proceeding 8238 • 80 utterances
Civil Trial
Department 103
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